PHOENIX - Ridership on the Bay Area Rapid Transit rail system in Northern California has plateaued or even dropped, according to the system's new annual report, one aspect of financial challenges BART has to face even as the public continues to approve new investments in the system.
The report released Wednesday by BART, which had $1.2 billion of long-term debt outstanding as of the close of fiscal 2016, details some financial hiccups that analysts said a number of transit agencies find themselves wrestling with. The 44-year-old system is in need of updates and repairs, and voters in November approved a $3.5 billion general obligation bond measure to make new investments in the system. But even with new money available, BART is likely to need to take steps to adjust for a lack of growth in its core fare revenue stream.
"Recent ridership trends show that after many years of growth, BART's ridership is flat or even declining in some markets," the report said. "Weekday ridership has grown by 30% since FY 2007 but growth has plateaued and weekend ridership began to decline slightly in late 2016," the report said.
The agency has experienced several well-publicized reliability problems, including a mystery electric surge that put almost six miles of track out of service for more than two weeks in March and April.
Andrew Ward, a San Francisco-based analyst at Fitch Ratings, said BART is one of a number of transit agencies struggling with ridership declines, particularly on weekends. Ward said that the advent of ridesharing is likely having some effect on the popularity of transit, but that the trend is so far too young to try to draw long-term conclusions from it.
BART is more fare-reliant than typical transit agencies, he said.
"The BART is more exposed to ridership trends than most transit agencies," said Ward. "They are much more reliant on fares. It's very unusual for transit agencies to support themselves primarily through fares. New York and BART are in a category of their own in that regard."
Policy makers have the ability to institute changes to steer citizens to use transit more often, Ward said, something San Francisco leadership has been willing to do in the past.
"I don't think public transit agencies are going the way of the buggy whip," said Ward.
The BART report lists several 2017 actions slated to advance the goal of financial stability for the agency.
"BART recently completed a test of targeted weekend promotional ticket giveaways, and will be evaluating the return on investment of this and other approaches to increasing weekend and off-peak ridership," the report said. The agency also plans to attempt to increase non-fare revenues from things like parking and advertising, and utilize more data-driven decision-making in its efforts to maintain fiscal stability.
BART increased its operating reserve fund goal in 2014 to 15% from 5%, and is currently sitting at around 6%.
