Vern Buchanan has raised $754,000 in the third quarter, blowing his Congressional opponents out of the water and making a strong case for himself as chair of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee should Republicans
His nearest opponent in his Congressional race, Democrat Jan Schneider, has as of the end of Q3, raised just $14,163 in this election cycle. But Republicans largely don't view this as a close race, as evidenced by Kevin Brady's Super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund's recent $11 million investment into close districts, which Buchanan's was not a part of.
Buchanan's massive cash inflows of $4.5 million this cycle, plus an additional $3.1 million raised for the National Republican Congressional Committee and $439,000 for other Republican members and candidates, despite not having a nationally backed opponent, thus presents Buchanan's efforts squarely in his race to advance Republican leadership and chair the Ways and Means Committee.
"Vern is a self-made conservative businessman who will bring over 30 years of real world experience to the chairmanship of Ways & Means Committee and help reverse President Biden's failed economic policies," said campaign spokesman Max Goodman.
But his lock on the chairmanship still isn't
Members of the House Steering Committee would need to agree on a simple majority for the next chair, and if that can be reached, then the person with the lowest votes drops out and the panel votes on a second ballot. While there will likely be some shuffling of those committee members, which includes three who are hanging up their spurs, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's vote may be the most consequential should he win speakership, as he'll have four votes on the Steering Committee and others may base their vote on that of the leader.
But as the muni market still struggles to find any legislative solution for the reinstatement of advanced refunding, expansion of bank qualified debt, establishment of a direct-pay bond program and the enactment of a PAYGO waiver, a Republican House could offer the muni market a fresh reset.
Current House Ways and Means chair Richard Neal has long been a champion of the muni market, and he notably included those provisions in an earlier draft of the since-doomed Build Back Better bill. He didn't get everything he wanted in what became the Inflation Reduction Act, and Democrats may be focused on a legacy package that could pass during the lame duck sessions after the election.
"The legacy package seems like a bit of a stretch at this point for Democrats," said Brett Bolton, vice president of federal regulatory policy at the Bond Dealers of America. "But assuming that the House flips, I think that actually may come into play."
There is some indication that Neal is interested in including some muni provisions in that, but at the moment, they're just whispers.
"To be honest, I think new Republican leadership for House Ways and Means will be a good thing for the market," Bolton said. Neal's predecessor Kevin Brady helped to tank advance refunding during his talks for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and new leadership could help to bring new light on these issues.
While recent years haven't yielded many large legislative wins for the muni market, BDA along with the Government Finance Officers' Association have made inroads with many rank and file Republicans and consider themselves to be in good standing with Republicans in the Ways and Means Committee and the House Municipal Finance Caucus.
But Republicans also have other priorities that could tangle the legislative web. On Sept. 21, Buchanan with backing from Brady, introduced the TCJA Permanency Act to ensure that the tax cuts passed under President Trump that are set to expire this year be signed into the tax code.
"In 2017, Republicans delivered the most comprehensive overhaul of the U.S. tax code in more than three decades and achieved historic economic growth," Buchanan said. "Under the leadership of Leader Brady, we delivered historic tax relief to low and middle-income families and small businesses across all income levels. With Americans continuing to suffer under the weight of record-high inflation and an uncertain economic future, we need to provide some much needed-relief and certainty to hardworking families and ensure these tax cuts do not expire."
Buchanan currently sits on the Joint Committee on Taxation but will have more authority to draft tax legislation if he were to lead the Ways and Means Committee.
That could complicate efforts for including muni provisions as part of it, since Republicans repealed advance refunding with the TCJA's initial passing and in the years following, were hesitant to rescind any of those efforts.
But how Republicans perform on Nov. 8 and how Richard Neal and Democratic leadership fare in the months following will help set up the new road for munis and the Ways and Means Committee.
