Moody's Ratings is examining emerging numbers of activity levels in the U.S. port sector and predicting a slowdown that is pulling the sector's outlook down to negative from stable.
"Tariffs, tariff policy uncertainty, and the rising risk of a recession this year are expected to weigh on trade volumes at U.S. ports in 2025," said David Kamran, assistant vice president at Moody's Ratings.
"The higher cost of imported goods will reduce import volumes, while uncertainty over tariff policy has impacted business planning and consumer sentiment, increasing the risk for a recession this year."
Moody's most recent analysis shows a 7%-12% decline but the agency notes that a "positive outlook could result if volume growth is on pace to top 3% on a sustained basis."
The report also takes a wider view by estimating tariffs, "will slow U.S. real GDP growth to between 0% and 1% in 2025 as the risk of a recession grows, signaling a potential drop in consumer demand."
Fitch Ratings most recent analysis of the entire transportation sector is currently pegged as neutral but with an expressed caveat that has now come to fruition.
"Ports should benefit from consumer spending, but global maritime trade may see volatility based on geopolitical developments, especially if higher tariff levels and other trade restrictions increase."
In January, before the tariffs hit, S&P Global Ratings had all not-for profit transportation sectors including ports as stable with the same concerns. "A degree of policy uncertainty lies ahead with the possibility of trade tariffs adding an element of risk."
Moody's numbers are backed up by data reported out from the Port of Los Angeles that saw a busy first quarter due to firms frontloading inventory levels.
"We are beginning to see the flow of cargo to the Port of Los Angeles slow," said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles.
"It's my prediction that in two weeks' time, arrivals will drop by 35% as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers has ceased."
The Port of Los Angles combined with its neighbor in Long Beach account for about 40% of the country's imports and about a third of the exports.
As President Trump keeps the tariffs situation fluid, the industry and eventually consumers may suffer from the uncertainty.
"Typically, retailers and manufacturers alike put in their orders to factories in Asia some three or four months in advance of shipments leaving via vessel," said Seroka.
Tariffs are also starting to take a toll globally as maritime consultancy firm Drewry is expecting global container port volume to fall 1% as a direct result of U.S. trade policies.
The cruise industry offers one safe harbor for the stress on ports.
According to Moody's, "Although the cruise industry is not directly impacted by high tariffs, consumer demand is highly discretionary, and the business is exposed to economic slowdowns and declining consumer confidence."
"Cruise demand, has been strong, with booking volumes for 2025 and 2026 at or ahead of 2024 levels. Pricing is also stronger than 2024, which topped 2023."
