Municipalities across the Southeast region are preparing to face another above-average hurricane season. The Atlantic storm season, which began on June 1, runs through Nov. 30.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center predict a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
On the brighter side, however, NOAA’s hurricane experts don’t expect to see the historic number of storms that were formed last year.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was like no other in recent times, according to AccuWeather.
“Not only did it produce 30 named storms, the most on record, but the United States suffered 12 direct strikes, smashing the previous record of nine from 1916,” AccuWeather meteorologists said. “Forecasters had to turn to the rarely used Greek alphabet for only the second time in history to name tropical systems.”
For 2021, NOAA predicts with 70% confidence between 13 and 20 named storms (those with winds of 39 mph or higher) of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, winds of 111 mph or higher).
“Now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities," FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said in a statement.
In Florida, state, county and city officials are taking variety of actions. The state’s disaster preparedness sales tax holiday is underway. Consumers can buy qualifying disaster preparedness supplies that are exempt from taxes through June 6.
Officials at Florida's Hurricane Catastrophe Fund say it is well positioned to weather any possible payouts due to storms this year after replenishing its accounts last year with a municipal bond sale.
In 2020, the Florida State Board of Administration Finance Corp. sold $3.5 billion of taxable revenue bonds that benefitted the Catastrophe Fund.
“Some of the previous transactions we had executed for Cat Fund had been tax-exempt in the 2005-06 era when we blew out the fund from six hurricanes in two years — and we have done pre-event deals which we do on a taxable basis, [which was what the 2020 deal was] for liquidity purposes,” Ben Watkins, a member of the corporation's board and director of Florida's Division of Bond Finance, told The Bond Buyer last year.
“As a consequence the Cat Fund is going to be very well-positioned on a go-forward basis with an educated investor and analyst community for any future borrowings,” he said.
Last month, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed into law $640 million in funding to ensure communities are prepared to deal with the impacts of sea level rise, intensified storms and flooding.
“This legislation will help Florida safeguard our communities from climate change impacts and help local communities invest in their resilience,” said Dawn Shirreffs, state director of the Environmental Defense Fund.
Some see an increased chance of hurricanes striking the Sunshine State this year as a result of climate change.
“Because the waters are so warm in the Gulf and along the entire Atlantic seaboard, the probability of a hurricane striking the U.S. coastlines are higher than average. This is true for both the east and the west coast of Florida including the Florida panhandle,” according to Bob Bunting, CEO and Chairman of the Climate Adaptation Center Inc., an independent nonprofit in Sarasota.
“A storm moving up the east coast will find favorable water temperatures all the way to Canada. There is no escaping hurricanes in a climate warmed world,” he wrote in the center’s 2021 forecast. “The greatest threat for Florida’s west coast will come in October when the worst storms often form and the climatology favors hits from storms forming in the Yucatan area. This doesn’t mean a hurricane force storm will not visit Florida earlier.”
He noted that because hurricanes are becoming more erratic due to a slower jet stream they can stall for long period of times and move in ways that have not been seen before.
On May 24, President Joe Biden announced a doubling of federal spending on preparations for severe weather events, in a move to put action on climate change at the top of his agenda. The administration will provide $1 billion this year to municipalities to prevent damage from floods, hurricanes, wildfires and other natural disasters, the White House said. Biden also ordered NASA to collect more climate data.
Ratings agencies are increasingly taking environmental factors into account during assessment of credits and investors are look at climate change and weather as credit risks.
In March, the Government Finance Officers Association released its first-ever best practice on environmental, social and governance issues to guide state and local governments on disclosing those concerns to the market.
The GFOA best practice was about fundamentally changing how industry practices are going forward, such as embedding the ESG disclosure in an official statement, Watkins said.
“It’s the first time I can think of, when we in the muni space are actually ahead of the curve,” he said.
Last month, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards announced the state will spend $30 million to offer voluntary residential buyouts in Lake Charles, an area that often floods during severe weather and was hammered last year by two hurricanes. The program is part of the state’s long-term resilience plan and funded by a $1.2 billion federal mitigation grant.
“As we continue to press the federal government for additional recovery funds following hurricanes Laura and Delta, we have been working with impacted communities to provide immediate relief to our residents and fund projects that align with federal grant requirements and our state’s long-term resilience objectives,” Edwards said.
In 2005, the Category 5 Hurricane Katrina blasted New Orleans, killing 1,800 people and causing over $125 billion in damage. It is tied for damages with 2017’s Category 4 Hurricane Harvey, which hit Louisiana and Texas killing 100 people.
In North Carolina, severe weather is also common and Gov. Roy Cooper urged residents to be aware of the dangers of hurricanes.
“All North Carolinians should take this time to prepare for the possible impacts of a hurricane or other severe weather by updating their family emergency plans and supply kits,” Cooper said in a statement.
The state is currently recovering from the devastating effects of multiple large storms including Hurricane Isaias and the remnants of Hurricane Eta in 2020; Hurricane Dorian in 2019; Hurricane Florence as well as tropical storms Michael and Alberto in 2018; and Hurricane Matthew in 2016.
“There are things everyone can do to prepare for severe weather long before it hits, such as having flood insurance and knowing if you live in a coastal evacuation zone,” said Mike Sprayberry, Executive Director of North Carolina Emergency Management and the Office of Recovery and Resiliency.
Twenty North Carolina coastal counties have established pre-determined evacuation zones, based on the threats of storm surge and river flooding.
