Cities vulnerable to climate threats should consider the politically unpopular option of limiting development in high-risk areas, even at the cost of property tax revenue.
That’s among the recommendations from the National League of Cities in a comprehensive
Climate risk has become an increasingly important factor for cities, affecting everything from their bond ratings to property tax base to how they build for the future.
The report said cities can fall into three types — vulnerable, recipient, or destination — though most will fit into more than one category, and provides dozens of recommendations and case studies to try to help local officials analyze the complicated topic.
“It is critical that local leaders plan and prepare for these changes, but unfortunately there’s not much guidance,” said NLC executive director Clarence Anthony Thursday during a webinar with local mayors and NLC officials to highlight the report. Federal funds from the American Rescue Plan Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law give local leaders “a critical opportunity to transform their communities into more equitable and resilient places to live,” Anthony said.
Despite the drum beat of climate-related threats over the last several years, some of the most at-risk locations are growing the fastest, the NLC said in the report. The 50 counties with the greatest exposure to extreme heat, flooding, drought, storms and wildfires all saw their populations grow between 0.4% and 5% since 2016 due to in-migration, according to a 2021 Redfin report quoted in the report.
Fort Collins, Colorado, for example, has grown 17.5% over the last decade, Mayor Jeni Arndt said during the webinar. That’s despite heat waves, wildfires, flooding and what she called the “aridification of the West.”
“We’re redoing our land use code, which is very contentious, and having to live in a more dense fashion,” she said. The city has adopted international building codes, which makes for more expensive houses, one of the difficult tradeoffs that’s part of planning for the future, she said.
Building codes and land use, along with insurance rates, all play a key role in managing and anticipating future climate threats, the NLC report said.
Orlando saw the effects of climate migration when, in 2017, it experienced an influx of 250,000 residents during a particularly dangerous hurricane season, said Chris Castro, the city’s director of sustainability and resilience. About 10% of them ended up staying there permanently, Castro said, saying Orlando is a "receiving-type" city that could see 500,000 people moving there directly due to climate change.
“We’re starting to grapple with the need of getting ahead of that, and its impact on our economy, our health and safety and the resources we depend on,” Castro said.
One politically difficult decision that local officials should consider is limiting or banning development in high-risk areas, the report says.
“Prohibiting development in high-risk areas is a decision that many local governments are reluctant to even discuss,” the report says. “A few local governments are waking up to the hard realities of the climate crisis by calling into question the growth-at-all-costs mindset, and realizing that protecting existing residents should be a priority.”
Climate-driven migration will likely take place over decades and accurate predictions about population shifts are “still many years away,” said Kelly Main, one of the report’s authors.
A 2021 Redfin survey hinted that climate may start to play more of a role in moving decisions, showing that 49% of Americans who plan to move in the next year said natural disasters were a factor, Main said.
“Climate change is full of uncertainty,” Main said. “Local leaders have a significant role to play in driving a climate-ready future for their communities.”
