The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March narrowed to negative 0.15 from a downwardly revised negative 0.31 in February, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) widened to negative 0.24 from an unrevised negative 0.18 reading, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
The CFNAI for February was originally reported as negative 0.29.
In March 2018, the index was positive 0.32, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.24.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, declined to negative 0.18 from a downwardly revised negative 0.08, first reported as negative 0.05. A year ago, the diffusion index was positive 0.16.
The production indicators subtracted 0.10 from CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.12 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators subtracted 0.03 from the index in the month, after a 0.15 subtraction in February, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.07 in the month, after taking 0.06 off the index in the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.05 in the month after a 0.01 contribution the month before.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by April 18, with data for 45 of the 85 indicators having been published by then, fewer than usual as a result of the government shutdown. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 37 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 47 made negative contributions, and one was neutral. While 18 indicators were better than the previous month, 23 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 37 deteriorated from February to March.
