The economy will grow above trend, inflation will tick lower, and unemployment will remain low through next year, according to a consensus economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Economic Outlook Symposium, released Monday.
Real GDP growth is projected to be 3.1% this year and 2.4% next year, while inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is seen at 2.4% this year and 2.3% in 2019, according to the forecast. Unemployment is seen holding at 3.7%.
Real consumer spending will drop from 2.7% this year to 2.4% in 2019, according to the consensus of the 34 participants, while real business spending is expected to slow from 6.4% this year to 3.4% next year. Housing starts are seen climbing to 1.26 million this year and 1.28 million next year.
The one-year Treasury rate is forecast to climb 56 basis points to 3.26% by the end of 2019, and the ten-year is seen gaining 35 basis points to 3.55% during that span.
