WASHINGTON — Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 215,000 in the October 20 week, right on expectations and showing signs of an impact from Hurricane Michael in Florida and Georgia, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed.
Unadjusted claims were up 3,744 in Florida and 3,440 in Georgia, and are likely to continue as workers return to the affected areas. In contrast, claims in North Carolina and South Carolina declined further as the impacts from Hurricane Florence continue to fade.
A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the four-week moving average for initial claims. The average held steady at 211,750 after increases in the previous four weeks.
However, if the number of headline claims does not change next week and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week average would rise by 2,000 as the 207,000 level in the September 29 week rolls out of the calculation.
While this would keep the average below its year ago level, the effects of Hurricane Michael in the coming weeks add some upside rise to both the headline level of claims and the four-week average.
Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 1.2%, or 2,310 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted an increase of 3.7%, or 7,008, to 197,509. The current week's level was below the 216,004 level in the comparable week a year ago, even with the impact of Hurricane Michael.
The level of continuing claims fell by 5,000 to 1.636 million in the October 13 employment survey week, and are down 27,000 from the 1.663 million level in the September 15 employment survey week, in contrast to a month-to-month gain for initial claims. This marks a new 45-year low for the series.
Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 18,852 to 1.370 million, remaining well below the 1.604 million level seen in the comparable week last year.
The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate week-to-week, fell by 6,750 to 1.647 million, the lowest level since the August 11, 1973 week.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.1% in the October 13 week from 1.2% in previous week and 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely low.
The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.
