Jobless claims four-week moving average lowest since March 1973

WASHINGTON — Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 in the February 3 week to 221,000, when analysts had expected claims to rise modestly to 232,000, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed.

Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 6.3%, or 16,822, in unadjusted claims. Those claims actually fell by 27,130 to 240,636. The current week's level was well below the 259,713 level a year ago.

BB-020918-CLAIMS

The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure of the underlying trend of the data during periods of volatility, fell by 10,000 to 224,500 in the February 3 week as the 261,000 level in the January 6 week rolled out of the equation. This marks the fourth straight decline and the lowest point since March 1973.

The average is now significantly below its recent peak of 250,750 in the January 6 week, which covered most of December. If the number of headline claims does not change next week and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week average will rise by 1,250 as the recent low point of 216,000 in the January 13 week rolls out of the calculation. This would keep the average well below its levels a month earlier.

The level of seasonally adjusted continuing claims fell by 33,000 to 1.923 million in the January 27 week after rising to 1.956 million in the previous week. The level remains significantly lower than a year earlier.

The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 12,500 to 1.946 million in the January 27 week, as a 1.873 million level in the December 30 week dropped out.

Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 70,297 to 2.306 million in the week and remained below the 2.483 million level a year earlier.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.4%, down slightly from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

Market News International is a real-time global news service for fixed-income and foreign exchange market professionals. See www.marketnews.com.
Economic indicators Jobless claims
MORE FROM BOND BUYER