WASHINGTON — Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to 207,000 in the September 29 week, well below the 216,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed.
It is likely that the level of initial claims will rise in the coming weeks as the impact of Hurricane Florence is felt by displaced workers. The timing of their filings may be spread out throughout the weeks, rather than all concentrated in one week, as workers continue returning to affected areas.
A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the four-week moving average for initial claims. The average rose by 500 to 207,000 in the September 29 week.
If the number of headline claims does not change next week and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week average would fall by 500 as the 205,000 level in the September 1 week rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago level. However, like initial claims, the average will also be impacted by the effects of Hurricane Florence in the coming weeks.
Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 3.5%, or 6,227 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually saw a decrease of 7.0%, or 12,358 to 165,215. The current week's level was well below the 204,180 level in the comparable week a year ago, when the hurricane impact lingered.
The level of continuing claims fell by 13,000 to 1.650 million in the September 22 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims fell by 18,166 to 1.392 million, remaining below the 1.615 million level seen in the comparable week last year.
The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate week-to-week, fell by 15,250 to 1.665 million.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in the September 22 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low.
The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.
